SINGAPORE, July 16, 2026 – The energy transition is no longer only a climate story. It has become a contest for industrial power, supply chain control, critical minerals, renewable energy capacity and clean technology manufacturing.
That is one of the clearest conclusions from DMCC’s Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture report, launched in Singapore.
The report argues that sustainability has moved from the language of net zero commitments and corporate disclosure into the language of export controls, strategic stockpiles, sovereign capital, manufacturing capacity and trade advantage. Clean energy is now a decisive factor in where investment flows, where supply chains are built and which economies capture the value of decarbonisation.
Speaking at the Singapore launch, DMCC Executive Chairman and CEO Ahmed Bin Sulayem framed the shift directly. “The energy transition is a battle for industrial advantage, and the window to stake a claim is narrow,” he said.
Sustainability Becomes a Competitiveness Issue
The report finds that businesses are increasingly focused on the industrial and geopolitical dimensions of sustainability, rather than only on carbon pricing or reporting.
According to DMCC’s Future of Trade survey, clean energy investment and manufacturing capacity were seen as the sustainability-related factors with the greatest impact on trade, cited by 30% of respondents. Critical minerals concentration followed at 21%, while divergent climate and industrial policies accounted for 18%. Together, these three factors represented nearly 70% of responses.
By contrast, carbon pricing and border measures ranked last at 9%, while 42% of businesses had not modelled the impact of carbon pricing at all.
This does not mean carbon pricing is irrelevant. Rather, it suggests that companies see the immediate competitive pressure elsewhere: in access to clean energy, control of mineral inputs, availability of manufacturing capacity, and the policy frameworks shaping clean technology supply chains.
The report states that more than one-quarter of businesses see sustainability becoming a source of competitive advantage, while almost 20% expect it to become a driver of supply chain restructuring.
For companies, that is a major shift. Sustainability is no longer only a reputational or compliance matter. It is becoming a question of cost, resilience, market access and industrial positioning.
Critical Minerals Are the Hidden Foundation
The clean energy economy is built on minerals. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, rare earth elements and graphite are essential for electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, grid transformers and the semiconductor supply chains that support AI. The report warns that without secure access to these inputs, every clean technology strategy is contingent on a small number of supplier nations.
DMCC’s report states that demand for critical minerals from clean technologies alone is projected to rise two to four times by 2040 as electricity networks, EVs and battery storage expand. If all-solid-state batteries commercialise quickly, the International Energy Agency has warned that lithium demand could reach 51 times today’s levels, while cobalt and graphite could see up to 30 times higher demand depending on battery chemistry.
The problem is that supply cannot respond quickly. New mines can take around 16 years from discovery to production, creating a structural mismatch between demand growth and supply availability.
This is why critical minerals are now central to trade strategy.
At the Singapore launch, Bin Sulayem noted that China leads refining for 19 of 20 strategic minerals tracked by the International Energy Agency and controls 94% of the world’s permanent magnet production, inputs that go into electric vehicles, wind turbines, data centres and defence systems.
This concentration gives China significant leverage in clean energy and advanced manufacturing supply chains.
Clean Tech Is Becoming Geopolitical
The report describes clean energy as a race for industrial supremacy. China already dominates large parts of the value chain, from rare earth refining to EV assembly. In the launch remarks, China was described as producing seven in ten electric vehicles globally last year.
The United States, by contrast, is described as pulling back on climate ambition, while Europe is legislating its way forward. The Gulf is using revenues from the old energy order to secure positions in the new one, backed by sovereign capital, renewable potential and its role as a trading hub.
This divergence is important. The energy transition is no longer unfolding through a single global policy pathway. Different blocs are moving through different combinations of subsidies, industrial policy, export controls, carbon border measures, green finance and strategic investment.
For businesses, that means sustainability strategy must now account for geopolitical fragmentation.
A company sourcing batteries, solar components, EV inputs or grid technologies is no longer making only a procurement decision. It is managing exposure to mineral concentration, policy divergence, trade restrictions, carbon rules and industrial competition.
Renewables Investment Is Not Enough Without Grids and Supply Chains
The report makes clear that renewable energy investment is only one part of the transition. The clean energy economy also requires grid infrastructure, storage, mineral processing, manufacturing capacity and trade corridors capable of supporting large-scale deployment.
This is where the challenge becomes more complex for emerging markets and ASEAN economies.
Southeast Asia is experiencing rising energy demand, expanding manufacturing activity and growing demand for data centres and AI infrastructure. At the same time, companies are under increasing pressure to reduce the carbon intensity of their supply chains.
Manufacturing hubs that can offer reliable renewable power, lower-carbon industrial zones and credible energy transition pathways will become more attractive to global investors and buyers.
But without grid investment, clean power procurement and regional energy cooperation, renewable ambition may not translate into industrial competitiveness.
ASEAN and Singapore’s Role
For ASEAN, the clean energy race creates both opportunity and exposure. The region is benefiting from supply chain diversification in electronics, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing. But as global buyers and regulators place greater emphasis on carbon intensity, ASEAN’s ability to scale renewable power and cleaner industrial infrastructure will influence its long-term competitiveness.
Countries with access to renewable resources, critical minerals, industrial land and manufacturing capacity may capture more clean technology investment. Those with weak grids, fossil-heavy power systems or unclear climate policies could face higher transition risks.
Singapore’s role is different. It lacks the land and resource base to dominate renewable generation or mineral supply, but it can play a strategic role in climate finance, carbon markets, clean technology investment, regional trade finance, digital infrastructure and policy coordination.
As a financial and trading hub, Singapore can help connect capital with decarbonisation opportunities across ASEAN.
Climate Policy Is Now Trade Policy
One of the most important implications of the report is that climate policy has become trade policy. Carbon border measures, EV subsidies, mineral export controls, clean technology incentives and grid investment are all shaping trade flows.
This could create new risks for exporters in carbon-intensive sectors, especially in emerging markets where decarbonisation capital is harder to access. But it also creates openings for countries that can build cleaner supply chains, attract green manufacturing and offer credible low-carbon production.
The report says the companies that treat the energy transition as a strategic opportunity will outperform those treating it as a compliance burden.
The energy transition is not slowing because geopolitics has become more complicated. It is being reframed by geopolitics. The companies and countries that control clean energy inputs, manufacturing capacity, renewable power, grids and financing will shape the terms of the transition.
For businesses, sustainability can no longer sit in a separate ESG function. It must be embedded into supply chain strategy, investment planning, energy procurement and market access.
The future of trade will be shaped by tariffs, AI and supply chain resilience. But it will also be shaped by who controls the infrastructure of decarbonisation.