The Path to Climate Neutrality in Europe

CO2 Value Europe (CVE), a non-profit association representing the Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) community in Europe, recently released the first large scale quantitative assessment report outlining the crucial role that CCU will play in reaching climate neutrality in Europe. The report attempts to contextualize the use of CCU technologies and quantify various pathways in different sectors to layout a trajectory for the capture and use of 320 MtCO2 by 2050 in Europe.

Célia Sapart, Scientific Director, CVE, presented the findings of the report to Carbon Wire. Célia Sapart is a climate scientist, specialist in greenhouse gas emissions and monitoring. After 13 years of academic research and scientific communication activities, she now works at the forefront of the climate action as Director Communications and Climate Science at CO2 Value Europe. The report, “The Contribution of Carbon Capture & Utilisation Towards Climate Neutrality in Europe” advocates for clear recognition of CCU in EU policies, explicit target setting in EU climate goals through 2050 and synchronised action for its strategic prioritization.

The conversation coupled with the report, which you can download here, outlines a clear path ahead for CCU’s role in “defossilisation” of hard-to-abate industries in Europe’s march towards climate neutrality.

CW: What is the role of CCU in achieving climate neutrality by 2050?

Célia: CCU represents an array of technologies able to capture carbon at point sources or from the air. The captured carbon is then transformed into a range of products such as building materials where CO2 is permanently mineralized, renewable chemicals, or renewable fuels. We emphasize the distinction between fuels and chemicals within CCU technologies, which is not always made.

CCU technologies serve to reduce emissions by providing a net emission reduction when the captured CO2 from one process is repurposed in another like using CO2 from the lime industry as aviation fuel. Avoidance of emissions occurs when CO2 emissions from a specific process is permanently stored in products or when CO2 stays in a closed loop. Removal is achieved through anthropogenic activities that extract CO2 from the atmosphere via Direct Air Capture (DAC) or via biogenic processes to store them durably underground or in products, or when this carbon stays in a closed loop.

CCU has been mostly neglected in climate and energy models resulting in absence of data and projections that enable policy makers to accelerate the deployment of these technologies. Our modelling exercise demonstrates the role of CCU in achieving climate neutrality in EU by 2050.

CW: How did you develop and quantify CCU’s contribution towards Net Zero?

Célia: First, we identified major driving forces and key uncertainties for the future deployment of CCU that enabled the development of contrasted scenarios. We then outlined representative CCU pathways and developed the 2050 Pathways Explorer for model scenarios with our partner Climact.

These scenarios informed the representative CCU pathways which can be broken down in 2 sectors, transports and industry and representing 7 pathways for e-methane, Fischer Tropsch fuels, methanol, olefins, concrete, ceramics and storage undergound.

Importantly, the development of this vision incorporated the impact of the emissions reduction on our water, material and electricity consumption and even the planetary boundaries.

The results were clear – there is an emission reduction gap between EU’s climate objectives and the stated policy measures. Approximately 2/3rd of the effort will have to come from new measures including deeper societal changes and further technology development.

CW: What are the sector-specific impacts of CCU according to your modelling exercise?

Célia: Interestingly, when it comes to industrial applications, CCU solutions represent 8% of total emission reduction in the EU and 21% of the technological effort to reach climate neutrality in the EU transport and industrial sectors.

For the transport sector, 11% of emission reductions will come from CCU fuels with the maximum impact on the aviation followed by maritime sector. Land transport will not witness a big impact from CCU given the trend in electrification which we expect to gather pace over the next decade.

One of the key concerns when it comes to CCU applications is the electricity consumption. Here our model predicts that 22% of low carbon electricity produced in EU by 2050 will be utilized largely for generating hydrogen for fuels and chemicals followed by direct air capture. CCU is then a solution to bring renewable electricity to sectors that cannot use it directly.

CW: Could you elaborate on the various ways of capturing carbon and their usage till 2050?

Célia: To reach climate neutrality in the EU, 320 MtCO2 will need to be captured by 2050. Our modelling assumes that DAC will be the largest supplier of carbon (46%) followed by process emissions and biogenic sources at 23% each. We believe that accelerating carbon capture in high process emissions is critical to substitute fossil-based products by CCU products.

As for the usage, 55% of the captured carbon will be used as feedstock for fuels, chemicals and building materials while the rest will be stored underground.

CW: What is the break-up of the usage of captured carbon in different industries?

Célia: By 2050, CCU fuels for aviation, maritime industries will become the largest users of captured carbon. In building materials, at least 76% of total ceramics production (99Mt) and 20% of the EU concrete (900Mt) will be produced via CO2 mineralisation. However, this does not account for the potential of new technologies to further augment carbon use. In the chemical industry, CCU has the potential of contributing about 70% to primary olefins production using renewable energy.

CW: With the impending implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aimed at preventing carbon leakage, how can CCU play a role in shaping these policies and aligning global industries?

Célia: The development of the ETS and CBAM reflects Europe’s commitment to mitigating carbon leakage and promoting sustainable practices. With CBAM, Europe aims not just to curb emissions within its borders but also to set a precedent for global industries. This mechanism serves as an incentive for non-EU countries to adopt similar carbon pricing systems, essentially extending the reach of Europe’s environmental policies and ensuring that products imported to the EU are not circumventing carbon pricing.

In this context, CCU technologies are important. By establishing definitions and standards for low-carbon products, such as renewable fuels of non-biological origin or mineralised products, the EU is creating a normative framework. This framework encourages global industries to adopt CCU, ensuring their products meet EU standards, can be traded and receive incentives attached to more sustainable products, as well as, in certain cases, avoid deterrence from CBAM tariffs. Hence, CCU not only aids in direct emission reductions but also plays a strategic role in aligning global industrial practices with the EU’s green transition goals.