Africa’s Carbon Market Awakening: A Shift from Potential to Power

Africa contributes just 3.9% of global CO₂ emissions, yet suffers some of the most severe climate impacts. The continent’s average surface temperature in 2024 was 0.86°C above the 1991–2020 average, with North Africa warming the fastest at 1.28°C. The consequences are dire, Southern Africa experienced its worst drought in two decades, slashing cereal yields by 16%, and even more dramatically in Zambia and Zimbabwe, where yields plunged 43% and 50% respectively. Meanwhile, West and Central Africa faced devastating floods affecting over four million people.

Vast Potential, Limited Participation

Despite this vulnerability, Africa remains underrepresented in global carbon markets, capturing only 16% of the current $1.4 billion carbon credit industry. Projections suggest this market could grow to between $7–35 billion by 2030, and potentially reach $250 billion by 2050. Yet Africa has monetised just 2% of its potential for nature-based climate solutions.

The continent hosts over 100 carbon credit projects across 20+ countries, collectively offsetting over 90 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent annually. However, nearly 90% of these credits come from just two project types — cookstoves and deforestation avoidance — highlighting a narrow project spread and an urgent need to diversify.

A Pathway to Economic Transformation

Carbon markets offer Africa much more than environmental value, they present a route to economic and social transformation. High-integrity African carbon credits could generate up to $6 billion annually by 2030 and support as many as 30 million jobs. Beyond financial returns, these markets contribute directly to at least 10 of the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, including food security, clean energy access, poverty reduction and sustainable economic growth.

Investor Confidence Gains Momentum

There is growing investor interest. The Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) has secured over $1 billion in demand-side commitments for African carbon credits by 2030. This includes $650 million in purchase intentions from major entities such as Standard Chartered, Vertree, Nando’s, ETG and the UAE Carbon Alliance, alongside $250 million in letters of intent for high-integrity projects.

AUDA-NEPAD’s Coordinated Strategy

AUDA-NEPAD, the African Union’s development agency, is leading the charge in building the infrastructure, capacity, and policy frameworks required to unlock Africa’s carbon market. A comprehensive study presented at COP28 identified four major barriers: lack of market understanding, limited institutional capacity, regulatory gaps, and inadequate access to finance.

In response, AUDA-NEPAD is providing technical support and financial mobilisation for climate adaptation and resilience. It has established a Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation and Resilience in Cairo and is now developing the African Gold Standard for Carbon Offsets, the continent’s first indigenous carbon market certification.

Tackling ‘Carbon Colonialism’ with Ownership

The African Gold Standard is a groundbreaking step to ensure African ownership of certification processes and benefit-sharing. It aims to counter “carbon colonialism” and prioritise local communities through transparent governance, food security considerations, energy access, and rural development.

Partnerships and Capital Mobilisation

AUDA-NEPAD is also collaborating with the Global Center on Adaptation through the $25 billion Africa Adaptation Acceleration Programme (AAAP), which has already channelled over $15 billion to climate resilience for nearly 60 million people. Still, current climate finance flows, despite a 48% increase from $29.5 billion in 2019/20 to $43.7 billion in 2021/22, fall short of the funding needed to meet Africa’s NDCs, underlining the critical role carbon markets must play.

Africa Climate Summit 2025: A Defining Moment

The upcoming Africa Climate Summit (ACS-2) in September 2025 marks a strategic pivot. Moving beyond calls for compensation, the summit will position Africa as a provider of solutions and investment opportunities. Countries such as Kenya, Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Egypt and Zambia are developing regulatory frameworks to create a unified continental platform.

With over 6,200 carbon credit projects globally registered in 2024 and 305 million credits issued, Africa’s improved regulatory readiness places it in a strong position to command a larger share of this fast-growing market.

The Road to COP30: Scaling for Impact

As the continent prepares for COP30, a unique convergence of global demand, improved governance, and institutional capacity is creating the conditions for real transformation. The African Gold Standard, AUDA-NEPAD’s coordinating role, and national frameworks together provide a foundation for Africa to lead in climate markets.

Measurable targets, such as $6 billion in capital mobilisation and 30 million jobs by 2030, offer benchmarks for progress. But continued coordination, political will, and international engagement will be key to achieving success.

A Revolution Rooted in Equity and Ambition

Africa’s carbon market awakening is not just about emissions. It is about justice, inclusion, and repositioning the continent at the heart of climate solutions. As the article from PrimeNewsAfrica.com concludes, “The question is no longer whether Africa can participate meaningfully in global carbon markets, but how quickly the continent can scale its participation to meet both its development needs and the world’s climate imperatives.”

Source: Adapted from “Africa’s Carbon Market Awakening: From Potential to Power”, originally published by PrimeNewsAfrica.com with support from AUDA-NEPAD.